Cousins vs. Monroe - Page 8

detroitsportsfan · 03-05-2011, 03:10 PM

Joe Dumars drafting has been a mixed bag: THE GOOD (Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Greg Monroe), THE DECENT (Carlos Delfino, Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, Brian Cardinal), & THE BAD (Darko Milicic, Mateen Cleaves, Deron Washington, Rodney White, DaJuan Summers). The draft is a bit of a crap shoot and no GM gets it right all the time. But even with Dumars bad picks, you can see his reasoning for drafting those picks and he usually fixed his mistakes in the end (which is one reason why new ownership should give him at least another year to turn things around).

fredsue · 03-05-2011, 06:35 PM

I think Aaron Affalo has shown more than Daye has. He was a very good pick..but the trade including him was bad....of course we would then have like 300 SGs ...Okur was a good pick as well...Walter was a bad

Santos · 03-05-2011, 07:29 PM

I think it's fair to imagine Monroe breaking the 20 ppg, 12 rbd barrier if he had a true point guard playing for him, right? That's the job for Detroit in my opinion. Find a true point guard, clean the shooting guard logjam, hope JJ comes back in good shape, bet on Daye's and Monroe's improvement and play a steady rotation for one year, evaluate your players and then decide what else you'd need.

If JJ comes back playing well and we put a good point guard to run the team, all of a sudden, the huge mess we had this year will seem long gone.

Stefan S · 03-05-2011, 10:09 PM

Good ideas, Santos.

Also, fire the owner (at least, have one who gives a damn).

Lou Stefanic · 03-05-2011, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by detroitsportsfan

Joe Dumars drafting has been a mixed bag: THE GOOD (Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Greg Monroe), THE DECENT (Carlos Delfino, Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, Brian Cardinal), & THE BAD (Darko Milicic, Mateen Cleaves, Deron Washington, Rodney White, DaJuan Summers). The draft is a bit of a crap shoot and no GM gets it right all the time. But even with Dumars bad picks, you can see his reasoning for drafting those picks and he usually fixed his mistakes in the end (which is one reason why new ownership should give him at least another year to turn things around).

Mehmet was left off this list.

detroitsportsfan · 03-06-2011, 11:57 AM

I didn't try to include everyone of his draft picks; just 5 in each category.

Kstat · 03-09-2011, 05:34 PM

NBA Rookie Watch: Redraft Version 2.0 - ESPN

Earlier this season, we did a redraft of the 2010 draft, and it looked a lot different than what really happened in June. Now let's do it again. You'll be surprised at how much has changed in just three months.

Remember, it's too early to make final judgments or say that teams were wrong in the draft. Rather, this is just another snapshot of how the rookies look today and a way to see how they're evolving.

On to the redraft ...

Wall
No. 1 pick: The Wizards select John Wall
No. 1 pick in December's redraft: John Wall
No. 1 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: John Wall

The Wizards may be terrible, and Wall simply has to improve his shooting, but there is no question he is at the head of this draft class by a large margin.

Despite playing on a bad team with some teammates who play like they don't care, or who struggle to be professionals off the court, Wall has maintained his competitive edge and is on the fast track to becoming an All-Star. He forces Wizards executives to ask, "How does he fit in with John?" every time they study a prospect or veteran.

Monroe
No. 2 pick: The 76ers select Greg Monroe
No. 2 pick in December's redraft: Derrick Favors
No. 2 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Evan Turner

DeMarcus Cousins has more upside, but the Sixers are looking for guys who'd mesh with their group of veterans and help them get back into the playoffs.

Monroe is starter material now and would be a great fit next to Elton Brand (high-low post action would be nice). He would also give the Sixers more of a defensive presence than Spencer Hawes does, and their style of defense would force Monroe to play harder and take more chances, which would help him play even better.

Favors
No. 3 pick: The Nets select Derrick Favors
No. 3 pick in December's redraft: DeMarcus Cousins
No. 3 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Derrick Favors

Knowing how desperately the Nets were looking for a star to acquire, and that this pick was going to be sacrificed to do so, it makes more sense to take Favors than Cousins.

Favors has more growing to do on the court, but few teams would be willing to trade their star for the current version of Cousins, as of now, anyway. Favors always projected to be a guaranteed starter with huge upside, and every GM valued him greatly.

Cousins
No. 4 pick: The Timberwolves select DeMarcus Cousins
No. 4 pick in December's redraft: Al-Farouq Aminu
No. 4 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Wesley Johnson

I understand why the Wolves didn't draft him (see last week's Rookie Watch), but can't help but think, "What if they had?"

The Wolves force the ball inside. They have a great shooting and passing power forward in Kevin Love. And their style of play and personnel is a perfect match for Cousins, who would pair with Love to form the best defensive-rebounding tandem in the NBA. Within three years they would likely have the best power forward/center combo in basketball. Yes, even better than the Lakers' front line of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

Patterson
No. 5 pick: The Kings select Patrick Patterson
No. 5 pick in December's redraft: Eric Bledsoe
No. 5 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: DeMarcus Cousins

Don't let Patterson's pedestrian averages fool you. If he had been drafted by Sacramento, or any team not loaded with strong veterans inside, Patterson would likely be a 14 and 7 guy right away with relative ease. And he'd do that more efficiently than the guys in Sacramento.

Patterson's shooting and defense would have earned him a starting spot quickly, too. When we revisit this draft in a few years, Patterson will be among the top performers.

Davis
No. 6 pick: The Warriors select Ed Davis
No. 6 pick in December's redraft: Larry Sanders
No. 6 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Ekpe Udoh

Given the Warriors' need for defense, I understand why they looked Udoh's way in June -- he has a chance to be very good -- but thus far, Davis is a better rebounder, shooter, finisher and scorer than Udoh (and Sanders). He's also comparable as a shot-blocker.

Davis looks like he's going to be a double-double guy in this league as a full-time starter, which could happen as early as next season. He is able to finish at a high rate inside and can also be utilized as a pick-and-pop guy -- that is a rare skill combination.

George
No. 7 pick: The Pistons select Paul George
No. 7 pick in December's redraft: Ed Davis
No. 7 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Greg Monroe

Monroe is no longer available here, but George looks like a real player and could have worked his way into being Tayshaun Prince's replacement. Evan Turner is also a consideration here, but I think George's upside is the key factor.George should be a strong defensive presence in this league and also has the potential to be a top-two scorer on the team. He's a big upgrade in the "athlete" department as well, a sore point for the current Pistons roster.

Fields
No. 8 pick: The Clippers select Landry Fields
No. 8 pick in December's redraft: Landry Fields
No. 8 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Al-Farouq Aminu

I had the Clips taking Fields back in December because Aminu was off the board then. This time I like Fields here because he's a great fit next to Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin.

Aminu has more upside, but Fields would give the Clippers at least two perimeter threats on the court with Griffin and two guys who could feed him inside. I also like Fields' fit in the chemistry department; Aminu's cool and casual demeanor would take a backseat to the fire in Fields.

Turner
No. 9 pick: The Jazz select Evan Turner
No. 9 pick in December's redraft: Wes Johnson
No. 9 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Gordon Hayward

Going into the season, Turner could have been penciled in as the starting 2 in Utah, where Deron Williams' presence alone would have enabled Turner to have some seams to attack after ball reversal. The Jazz's offense would allow him to make plays inside within its flow, and his rebounding talent would be an immediate help. He represents strong value at this spot in the draft.

Johnson
No. 10 pick: The Pacers select Wesley Johnson
No. 10 pick in December's redraft: Xavier Henry
No. 10 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Paul George

With George off the board, Johnson would be the choice here. He's starting to figure out how to use his athleticism to make defensive plays, and has become a very reliable shooter from a few spots on the floor.

For me, the question for Johnson has always been his willingness and ability to attack the rim. It looks as if he's making progress there, too. If that continues, he has a chance to be a top-5 player in this class within a few years, if not sooner.

Dave Bing · 03-09-2011, 05:44 PM

Good job Joe! And good work G-Moe.

GC_STONES · 03-09-2011, 06:06 PM

still can't believe the Warriors took Epic 'bobble head' Udoh over Slow Moe.

diecast75 · 03-10-2011, 02:44 AM

I was beside myself....new we had lucked out big time!

Jangul · 03-10-2011, 03:48 PM

Note that 5 of the top 7 picks were available at pick 7 or below. No chance we'll remember that when we're wringing our hands about games we should have thrown so we didn't end up with the 9th pick in and "8 man draft" or whatever this summer.

Good players are there to be had in the middle of the draft and there are plenty of bad ones to be had at the top of the draft. It's a crapshoot.

El Axe · 03-10-2011, 03:56 PM

I'm not sure I'd take Monroe over Favors looking long-term, but there's no doubt that Joe played this right in any case.

hack · 03-10-2011, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jangul

note that 5 of the top 7 picks were available at pick 7 or below. No chance we'll remember that when we're wringing our hands about games we should have thrown so we didn't end up with the 9th pick in and "8 man draft" or whatever this summer.

Good players are there to be had in the middle of the draft and there are plenty of bad ones to be had at the top of the draft. It's a crapshoot.

okokfine. Uncle!

*JD* · 03-10-2011, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Axe

I'm not sure I'd take Monroe over Favors looking long-term, but there's no doubt that Joe played this right in any case.

Yeah, it's early but Favors hasn't shown a thing so far other than an Amir-like ability to pick up fouls.

whoDean · 03-10-2011, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jangul

Note that 5 of the top 7 picks were available at pick 7 or below. No chance we'll remember that when we're wringing our hands about games we should have thrown so we didn't end up with the 9th pick in and "8 man draft" or whatever this summer.

Good players are there to be had in the middle of the draft and there are plenty of bad ones to be had at the top of the draft. It's a crapshoot.

The first chance to make a mistake is worth something.

hack · 03-10-2011, 04:29 PM

LOL, well put.

Mainevent · 03-10-2011, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jangul

Note that 5 of the top 7 picks were available at pick 7 or below. No chance we'll remember that when we're wringing our hands about games we should have thrown so we didn't end up with the 9th pick in and "8 man draft" or whatever this summer.

Good players are there to be had in the middle of the draft and there are plenty of bad ones to be had at the top of the draft. It's a crapshoot.

Or you can note that 4 of the top 5 were taken in the top of the actual draft. Nevermind that this is still less than 1 year out from the draft and there's a long way to go.

The simple fact is, you're more likely in most years to get a top notch player drafting high (top 10) in the draft than you are drafting much later. Yes, there will always be a few outliers, good players that are as good or better than some guys that went higher, but the true difference makers go high in the draft probably 80% of the time.

Dave Bing · 03-10-2011, 05:15 PM

I'm starting to warm to Kemba. In the NBA, you need to do at least one thing really well to survive. Kemba can handle the pumpkin. He's so freaking fast with the ball.

And hey... pretty clutch too. He's kind of an under-control Brandon Jennings with a decent jumper.

Mainevent · 03-10-2011, 06:30 PM

I can't buy into him being a PG yet. But dude can get into the lane anytime he wants.

GC_STONES · 03-10-2011, 07:03 PM

I've had my eye on Kemba since he was a frosh --- loved him more and more each year.... yet I see him, and how much better is he than Will Bynum?

Stefan S · 03-10-2011, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GC_STONES

I've had my eye on Kemba since he was a frosh --- loved him more and more each year.... yet I see him, and how much better is he than Will Bynum?

But does he real PG qualities?
Can he control the tempo?
Does he involve his guys?

I'm asking because I have no clue.

Kstat · 03-10-2011, 07:29 PM

He has no guys to involve.

Jangul · 03-11-2011, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mainevent

Or you can note that 4 of the top 5 were taken in the top of the actual draft. Nevermind that this is still less than 1 year out from the draft and there's a long way to go.

The simple fact is, you're more likely in most years to get a top notch player drafting high (top 10) in the draft than you are drafting much later. Yes, there will always be a few outliers, good players that are as good or better than some guys that went higher, but the true difference makers go high in the draft probably 80% of the time.

No, the simple fact is you're math is wrong. Only 2 of the top 5 players taken, Wall and Cousins were deserving of a top 5 pick according to the redraft article . The other 3: Monroe, Aminu, and Bledsoe were not top 5 picks. Which means 60 percent of the top 5 performers were actually picked between 7 and 12. That means last year, your odds of getting a true top 5 performer were actually better in the late lottery than in the early lottery.......umm.... that's a crapshoot.

Jangul · 03-11-2011, 03:24 PM

Let me revise that last statement. I had the December redraft mixed up with the current redraft. And I question how they can justify Favors at 3 given his underwhelming performance so far, but so be it.

60 percent of the top 5 performers were in picks 1 thru 6 (Favors, Wall, and Cousins) and 40 percent in picks 7-12 (Patterson and Monroe). That's still a crapshoot.

Mainevent · 03-11-2011, 04:02 PM

It's still in the lottery. And how many of those guys are game changers from a franchise perspective? Yes, you can get quality players outside of the top 5 in the lottery. But most of the true elite talent, the type of players that can help turn a franchise around on their own, most are found in the top 5-10 picks every year.

Now, you don't have to necessrily draft those guys yourself to acquire them (look at NY with Melo and Amare, Miami with Lebron, Gasol etc.). But when it comes to the draft, most of those guys come in the lottery, and often quite high in the lottery. Just look at the "stars" around the league - Wade, Bosh, LeBron, Melo, Rose, Paul, Williams, Wall, Griffin, Durant, KG, Pierce, Allen, Dirk, Westbrook, Duncan, on and on).

What you also don't consider is that while the guy picked at 12 may turn out real well, the guys 13-18 may not, the odds of landing a quality player get less and less as the draft goes on. If the top 10 is a 1 in 3 crapshoot for an impact player, well outside the top 10 might be more like 1 in 6 or worse (all ratios are purely examples, not grounded in fact).

Dave Bing · 03-11-2011, 04:39 PM

Very small sample size. It would be interesting to go back ten years on this.

Anyone game?

hack · 03-11-2011, 04:43 PM

Would love to know. My bet is that there are 1, maybe 2 players a year worth trading up for and that's it and you know in advance who they are. I think ME's right, but in the case of Cousins/Monroe, Jangul's point was too. Wall was worth paying for. Not cousins.

Kstat · 03-11-2011, 05:07 PM

Let's go by the all-rookie first teams as the top-5 standard.

2010

Tyreke Evans (4th)
Brandon Jennings (10th)
Stephen Curry (7th)
Darren Collison (21st)
Taj Gibson (26th)

2009

Derrick Rose (1st)
OJ Mayo (3rd)
Russell Westbrook (4th)
Brook Lopez (10th)
Michael Beasley (2nd)

2008

Al Horford (3rd)
Kevin Durant (2nd)
Luis Scola (55th)
Al Thornton (14th)
Jeff Green (5th)

2007

Brandon Roy (6th)
Andrea Bargnani (1st)
LaMarcus Aldridge (2nd)
Randy Foye (7th)
Rudy Gay (8th)
Jorge Garbajosa (undrafted)

2006

Charis Paul (4th)
Charlie Villanueva (7th)
Andrew Bogut (1st)
Deron Williams (3rd)
Channing Frye (8th)

2005

Emeka Okafor (2nd)
Dwight Howard (1st)
Ben Gordon (3rd)
Luol Deng (7th)
Andre Igoudala (9th)

2004

Carmelo Anthony (3rd)
LeBron James (1st)
Dwayne Wade (5th)
Chris Bosh (4th)
Kirk Hinrich (7th)

2003

Yao Ming (1st)
Amare Stoudemire (9th)
Caron Butler (10th)
Drew Gooden (4th)
Nene (7th)

2002

Pau Gasol (3rd)
Shane Battier (6th)
Jason Richardson (5th)
Tony Parker (28th)
Andrei Kirilinko (24th)

2001

Mike Miller (5th)
Kenyon Martin (1st)
Marc Jackson (37th)
Morris Peterson (21st)
Darius Miles (3rd)

Dwight Schrute · 03-11-2011, 05:08 PM

I agree with ME. Also, I just found out today that we passed on Wilt Chamberlain to draft Bailey Howell. At the #2 spot. That is not a good spot for us.

Kstat · 03-11-2011, 05:15 PM

so out of 51 all-1st team rookies:

28 (%55) were drafted in the top five
15 (%29) were taken during picks 6-10
5 (%10) were taken during the1st round outside of the top-10
2 (%4) were drafted in the 2nd round
1(%2) was undrafted.

Kstat · 03-11-2011, 05:21 PM

It's also worth noting, that while none of the last 10 all-rookie first teams have featured all top-5 picks, two of them have featured 4 out of 5.

If you're in the crapshoot frame of mind, the 7th pick has actually landed on the all-rookie 1st team more often than the 2nd pick (6 times vs. 4 times), a trend that will most likely continue this season.

Going by the last decade, odds are roughly %40 that you'll land a top rookie at #2, and %60 that you'll land a top rookie at #7. Include Monroe and Turner in the mix, and that gap widens to %36 and %63.

Mainevent · 03-11-2011, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hack

Would love to know. My bet is that there are 1, maybe 2 players a year worth trading up for and that's it and you know in advance who they are. I think ME's right, but in the case of Cousins/Monroe, Jangul's point was too. Wall was worth paying for. Not cousins.

Agree with this. Trading up in the top 10 or so is likely not worth it in most cases. And when it is, when there are clear studs at the top, teams aren't trading those picks.

Statman Crothers · 03-11-2011, 06:33 PM

Great stats!

Mainevent · 03-11-2011, 09:38 PM

Nice legwork Kstat.

BTW, Kemba Walker with another ridiculous game tonight. I might not care if he's a real PG or not. That guy will add some excitement to whatever team he goes to.

El Axe · 03-12-2011, 12:14 AM

Franchise-type players from Kstat's list:
2008 Kevin Durant (2nd)
2007 Brandon Roy (6th); LaMarcus Aldridge (2nd)
2006 Chris Paul (4th); Deron Williams (3rd)
2005 Dwight Howard (1st)
2004 Carmelo Anthony (3rd); LeBron James (1st); Dwayne Wade (5th); Chris Bosh (4th)
2003 Yao Ming (1st); Amare Stoudemire (9th)
2002 Pau Gasol (3rd); Tony Parker (28th)
2001 none

15 players: 12 in the top-5, one at #6, one at #9 and one at #28.

hack · 03-12-2011, 02:02 PM

Kemba Walker is Bynumite out there on the court!!!

(just looking to use the pun, not make a totally accurate comparison. He may not suffer the problems of Bynum, but I bet he'll never be a Piston. You can be an undersized SG for Joe, but not an undersized PG. And the risk if he can't run a team to a basic degree of competency is massive. We'd have an undersized SG that would make Ben Gordon look like a giant.)

Mainevent · 03-16-2011, 03:19 PM

NBA Rookie Watch: Biggest surprises - ESPN

Despite years of scouting players and hundreds of hours watching tape, projecting how a rookie will play is often more art than science. There are so many variables to consider -- personnel mixes, coaching styles, offensive and defensive systems, injuries; all work to cloud the vision of what's going to happen in Year 1. Still, we go into the season with an outlook that is well-defined, and these are 10 things that have us most surprised.

Monroe

1. Greg Monroe is killing it.

I watched him jog a lot at Georgetown and many NBA scouts questioned his heart and motor because of his inconsistent efforts. Then when the season began, he could have earned the nickname "digital man" because he filled the stat sheets with zero's and one's. Twice in November he didn't score in 18 minutes of action (once against the defensively challenged Warriors). In fact, he didn't register his first double-figure scoring game until Dec. 1.

Then the calendar flipped to 2011 -- he's averaged at least 10.9 points and 8.8 boards in each month this year. Plus, he's making almost 60 percent of his shots, thanks to good discipline which leads to excellent shot selection. The Pistons are a better offensive team now, and Monroe might be the most important cog in that wheel.

And in the notes section:

Ed Davis, Raptors -- March 14: March has been his best month, averaging 10 points and nine boards with more than two combined blocked shots and steals a game. He's had five games with 13 or more rebounds since Feb. 11, a huge indicator that he has a chance to be a prime rebounder. Couple that with his excellent scoring sense, and the Raptors appear to have found a long-term replacement for Chris Bosh. While he doesn't have Bosh's total talent, we know Toronto can look to draft or acquire help in the other positions -- the Raptors are set at PF.

B.I.G. · 03-16-2011, 11:44 PM

Greg Monroe's DeMarcus Cousins or Aldrich for that matter...LOL!!! Where is Aldrich BTW?

King Mob · 03-16-2011, 11:59 PM

Monroe is making you look bad...smh

Kstat · 03-17-2011, 02:32 AM

care to post the whole article, Mainevent?

Mainevent · 03-17-2011, 12:11 PM

Here you go. Didn't realize it was an "insider" column.

Despite years of scouting players and hundreds of hours watching tape, projecting how a rookie will play is often more art than science. There are so many variables to consider -- personnel mixes, coaching styles, offensive and defensive systems, injuries; all work to cloud the vision of what's going to happen in Year 1. Still, we go into the season with an outlook that is well-defined, and these are 10 things that have us most surprised.

Monroe1. Greg Monroe is killing it.

I watched him jog a lot at Georgetown and many NBA scouts questioned his heart and motor because of his inconsistent efforts. Then when the season began, he could have earned the nickname "digital man" because he filled the stat sheets with zero's and one's. Twice in November he didn't score in 18 minutes of action (once against the defensively challenged Warriors). In fact, he didn't register his first double-figure scoring game until Dec. 1.

Then the calendar flipped to 2011 -- he's averaged at least 10.9 points and 8.8 boards in each month this year. Plus, he's making almost 60 percent of his shots, thanks to good discipline which leads to excellent shot selection. The Pistons are a better offensive team now, and Monroe might be the most important cog in that wheel.

Fields2. Landry Fields can shoot and rebound at this level.

Sure, he played lots of power forward his last season in Stanford and averaged 8.8 boards per game. But in the NBA, the first guy to the ball normally wins and Fields would be stationed on the wing as a pro. The Knicks got Fields in the second round precisely because no one projected he would be able to rebound as a wing, and his shot was very suspect as well.

We saw that he could play in summer league, but who would've guessed he'd be averaging 6.9 rebounds and shooting 40 percent from 3 as the Knicks' starting 2-guard? On top of that, he's had to make one one major adjustment: Going from primary option to role player, which is not easy. But we'd never know that based on what Fields has done this season.

Patterson3. Patrick Patterson might be the best jump shooter in this class.

In fact, he might be the best offensive rookie this season. Guys like John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin will likely end up being better offensive players, but Patterson has been terrific. He's made over 69 percent of his inside shots and over 55 percent from 16 to 23 feet. Nobody puts up numbers like those. Nobody.

He's also shown the ability to score over people with athleticism, good hands and even the beginnings of some "Scolas" (scoops or half-hooks coming off fakes). Arriving to the NBA with the reputation of someone who knew how to play a role, he might end up being a top-three scorer for a good team early in his career.

4. Cleveland may have three building blocks (and used only one first-round pick).

Cavs fans are hoping the team's draft picks this year will help turn around the franchise , but this year's rooks -- Christian Eyenga, Manny Harris and Samardo Samuels -- all look like guys that can play in this league, too. While it remains to be seen whether or not they can be NBA rotation players on a good team, these guys are exceeding expectations this season. Plus, each still has upside to explore, with the late-blooming Samuels only 22 years old and Eyenga and Harris not turning 22 until the summer.

Assuming the Cavs add top-tier prospects this June with their own pick and the Clippers' unprotected pick, the Cavs could have five young players to jump-start their future (plus the 23-year-old J.J. Hickson).

Neal5. Gary Neal is a big difference maker for the league's best team.

Anyone who watched him in Europe knew he could play, but 29 franchises failed to see what kind of impact he could have on their team. He has made over 41 percent of his 3s this season and almost half of his 2-point shots, thanks to an excellent shooting stroke and even better shot selection.

Neal should be the pioneer now for undrafted players who go overseas for a few years and continue to improve. And the Spurs have taught the league a valuable lesson: Don't keep recycling players who have been in the NBA but haven't accomplished anything when there are better players in Europe who haven't gotten a real chance to prove they belong in the NBA.

6. Gordon Hayward and Xavier Henry have been awful.

It's difficult to put it any other way. Hayward seemed primed to step into a simple role in Utah, needing only to rebound and defend to earn quality minutes. And Henry, surrounded by talented veterans, just needed to get his silky smooth jumper flowing while contributing in the athletic areas of the game.

Unfortunately, Hayward has proved to be one of the worst rebounding small forwards in the league and is likely the worst defender on the team. Meanwhile, Henry ranks as possibly the worst rebounder/shooter among all shooting guards in the NBA.

Still, while both guys have underperformed dramatically, I would be more surprised if neither guy developed into at least a solid player in the NBA.

Wall7. John Wall alone can't help the Wizards return to respectability.

There is almost nothing Wall can't do well, from creating steals to getting guys easy shots or willing his team to fight because he's so competitive. He blew into the league after a storied high school career and a great freshman season at UK, and in November he looked like he alone would spark the Wiz to be a much-improved team. But his one major flaw is the big reason he alone can't carry his team: Wall simply can't shoot.

He's making just 28 percent of his shots beyond 16 feet and inside the 3-point line, and 25 percent from 10-15 feet, the two combined ranges he takes most of his shots from. Those numbers are well below Derrick Rose's rookie numbers (he made 43 percent from 16-23 feet and 38 percent from 10-15 feet).

Wall is already very good at finishing in the paint, better than Rose was as a rook, but to carry his team he has to be able to make a lot more shots.

Mainevent · 03-17-2011, 12:12 PM

Turner8. Evan Turner struggled during the first few months.

Maybe some people would rank this as a bigger surprise, considering how dominant he was in college. But beginning with summer league in July, we could see a number of factors were going to make Turner's transition from college superstar to NBA role player very difficult.

Not having the ball in his hands a lot dramatically impacted his feel and confidence early in the season, and consequently, his overall effectiveness sank low. It's Turner's fault for not preparing as diligently as he should have this summer and fall, but he's also been the victim of being on a team that didn't need his unique set of talents as much as other teams did yet drafted him anyway. Fortunately for him and the Sixers, he has been getting back to being a solid player of late.

9. Al-Farouq Aminu couldn't miss from deep early, then his shot disappeared.

It's difficult to figure out which numbers are more surprising, but they are stunning: Aminu made 32 of his first 69 3-pointers and ranked as one of the best deep shooters in the league. Then 2011 hit, and he's made 10 of his last 59. That's 10 made 3s in 2½ months, after making 10 in just two weeks in November.

Back then we wrote that, for a player with his talent, he was relying too much on the deep shot. It's a big reason his overall productivity and efficiency are so low, ranking 24th among rookies in PER.

Griffin
10. Blake Griffin is already a superstar and could be MVP one day.

Everyone knew he was going to be good when he went No. 1 overall in 2009 -- "starter good." But then he put up 20 and 14 in his opening game this season -- after sitting out all of 2009-10 with a knee injury -- and we saw he was going to be able to overpower players with his strength and size.

Still, it was his 44-15-7 game in November that announced to the world he was already a star capable of lifting a bad franchise to higher levels. Dominant performances, highlight dunks and an All-Star berth followed. The rest is history.

This week's rookie updates

Larry Sanders, Bucks -- March 16: To stick in the NBA, oftentimes a player just needs to show one area where he can be a master. For Sanders, he's going to be here a long time thanks to his shot-blocking talent. The five blocks he had against Cleveland weren't a career high, but it was the third game in March he had more than two blocks.

Jordan Crawford, Wizards -- March 16: Crawford poured in 21 first-half points in a fairly competitive game against the Bulls (who were without Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer). His staccato dribble attack was difficult for defenders to measure and he shot the ball well (and often). He tired in the second half but still showed some interesting signs and even played some backup point guard. He has a chance to be a player in this league, probably as a scoring guard off the bench.

Landry Fields, Knicks -- March 16: The Knicks are struggling, but Fields is still steady and productive. On target from inside and outside, Fields has also gotten better with the ball, turning it over less than once per game in March.

Avery Bradley, Celtics -- March 15: He's getting the occasional few minutes in games -- close ones and blowouts. But I don't expect he'll be active once the playoffs begin.

John Wall, Wizards -- March 15: There is little doubt that Wall is now trying to do too much to help his struggling team -- slower to pass the ball to open teammates, looking to make special passes instead of easy ones. But it's nothing to be concerned about. Wall is still fighting for wins, which is the most important thing for him to do right now.

Kevin Seraphin, Wizards -- March 15: Seraphin is starting to see things better on defense. Experience makes a difference and he's starting to anticipate a bit. I'm still not sure what he'll ultimately be, but I know he'll get chances this season and the next to prove he belongs.

Eric Bledsoe, Clippers -- March 15: Bledsoe is working on his best month thus far, and he's doing it in about half the minutes he earned in November, his previous best month. Mo Williams is taking most of those minutes now, but that has not slowed Bledsoe, who is averaging 12 points, three rebounds and three assists while shooting 58 percent from the field. It looks like he's figured out that defenders cannot contain his drives without fouling often, as evidenced by his huge jump in free throws attempted. He's had seven and nine attempts in his past two games. His previous high was six.

Cole Aldrich, Thunder -- March 14: Aldrich is making the occasional spot appearance and basically fouling more than anything else. Don't read too much into that, though -- we don't get a fair evaluation of players who play such limited minutes.

Samardo Samuels, Cavaliers -- March 14: He recorded one double-double and flirted with two others over the past week, though it did not help the Cavs win any games. The jury is still out on him (though at least it is deliberating), and we won't know for sure what the Cavs have in him until next season. Still, there is room for optimism.

Ed Davis, Raptors -- March 14: March has been his best month, averaging 10 points and nine boards with more than two combined blocked shots and steals a game. He's had five games with 13 or more rebounds since Feb. 11, a huge indicator that he has a chance to be a prime rebounder. Couple that with his excellent scoring sense, and the Raptors appear to have found a long-term replacement for Chris Bosh. While he doesn't have Bosh's total talent, we know Toronto can look to draft or acquire help in the other positions -- the Raptors are set at PF.

Stefan S · 09-29-2011, 09:42 PM

Quote:

5. Who should be ranked higher: DeMarcus Cousins or Greg Monroe?
Note: Cousins was selected No. 5 overall in the 2010 draft, while Monroe was picked seventh.

Tim Donahue, 8 Points, 9 Seconds: Cousins gets the nod here for playing a much greater role with his Kings. He's pretty inefficient, which is troubling, but he's a dazzling talent. Still, Monroe looks very promising, and could realistically end up being the better, more reliable player over the course of his career. Just not right now.

Bret LaGree, Hoopinion: Greg Monroe. Monroe will never carry a heavy offensive role like Cousins should, and Cousins might become the more valuable player because of that. Monroe had the better rookie season, though.

Ian Levy, Two-Man Game: Cousins was ranked 50 spots higher, but I'd rather have Monroe. In their rookie seasons, Monroe was a better offensive rebounder and more efficient scorer, and he turned the ball over on fewer of his possessions. Cousins is undoubtedly more skilled, but right now Monroe is getting more out of his skills. To me, that's the definition of value.

Chris Palmer, ESPN The Magazine: Cousins. Monroe has an elegant pass-first game and could eventually develop into a highly effective shooter. But Cousins' power, size and skill make him potentially unstoppable. He's an '80s-style enforcer who trades on intimidation and has a rapidly improving 17-footer. Could be the second-best center in the league in two years.

Jeremy Schmidt, Bucksetball: Cousins. Oddly enough, Cousins' personality may be his biggest advantage over Monroe. Cousins will never have a problem demanding the ball and getting up lots of shots. Monroe's passiveness makes it difficult to imagine him taking on a much larger role. It's easier to envision Cousins making more shots than it is Monroe demanding more.

#NBArank debates -- who should be higher? - ESPN

Lou Stefanic · 10-03-2011, 06:57 PM

Do you think any of those guys have actually watched Monroe play in the league?

Stefan S · 11-06-2011, 03:38 PM

Drag Race: Greg Monroe vs. DeMarcus Cousins PistonPowered

Quote:

Drag Race: Greg Monroe vs. DeMarcus Cousins
By Dan Feldman • 10:15 am • November 2, 2011

This is the debut of a new feature called “Drag Race.” Patrick and I pit two players, one Piston and one non, against each other with the question in mind: Which would you rather have on your team? Age, salary, everything count. Scroll past the post, and there’s a poll for you to vote.

Greg Monroe
DeMarcus Cousins still has more upside than Greg Monroe, but it’s shocking how far the gap has closed between the two in just one season. Cousins was the consensus top big in the draft last season, while a handful of scouts were lukewarm on Monroe and didn’t feel like he lived up to his full potential at Georgetown. Here’s an example from DraftExpress in 2010:

“Monroe came into this season very out of shape, and thus took time to shed some of the extra weight he was carrying and get himself into optimal condition. For a player who already struggles with heavy feet and a general lack of athleticism, he cannot afford to give NBA scouts the impression that he’s not working that hard in the summer.”

There were dozens of reports similar to that on Monroe before the 2010 NBA Draft, which is a big reason he slipped to Detroit and lesser, but allegedly harder-working college players like Ekpe Udoh rose.

All of that is a long way of saying that in less than a year, Monroe completely wiped out just about every one of the many negative stereotypes there were about him by working hard, having a good attitude and flashing parts of his game that he didn’t show in college, specifically the fact that he became a much better offensive rebounder as a pro than he was as a college player and became much more efficient finishing at the rim as a pro.

If Cousins develops a work ethic to match his talent, he’ll be one of the game’s best big men. Monroe has already developed it, and that’s enough to sell me on him.

-Patrick Hayes

DeMarcus Cousins
Greg Monroe had a better season than DeMarcus Cousins, and they’re about the same age and make about the same money. Typically, I’d take the better player in that situation.

But Cousins is the rare exception.

Cousins scored more, passed better and rebounded better than Monroe. Unfortunately, Cousins also made more mistakes than Monroe, and that separated them – last year.

A rookie big man who turned the ball over too much, fouled too much and didn’t shoot well enough from the field? Sorry, that’s not a deal breaker. He’ll have plenty of time to polish his game.

Cousins and Monroe actually shot a similar percentage at the rim, despite Cousins being burdened with creating his own shot much more often. Cousins also shot better than Monroe did at every other distance. The difference was Cousins took a higher percentage of his shots from those low-efficiency areas away from the rim.

Part of the blame falls on Cousins for taking bad shots. Some should also go to his teammates, many of whom lack scoring skills. Somebody had to shoot, so why not Cousins? His usage percentage (27.2) dwarfed Monroe’s (15.4), and if they had swapped teams, I’d guess those percentages would look very different – as would their field-goal percentages.

Cousins’ turnovers and fouls were less excusable, other than to point to his age and hope he grows out of the deficiencies.

Cousins will also likely become a better rebounder than Monroe. Monroe was a better offensive rebounder last year (13.0 percent to 10.4 percent), but Cousins was better defensively (24.4 to 20.4) and overall (17.2 to 16.5). Players’ offensive rebounding tends to peak their rookie year, which means Monroe’s advantage on the glass very well could shrink or disappear.

Plus, if Monroe plays more in the high post to take advantage of his passing ability, that would mean fewer offensive rebounds. He can’t have his assists and eat his cake, too. Or something like that.

Cousins has the potential to dominate the league. At some point, Monroe’s lack of athleticism will limit his progress. For that reason, I’d take a chance on the guy who played slightly worse last year.

-Dan Feldman

Stefan S · 11-06-2011, 03:39 PM

Also, ESPN writers give lots of love to Moose
usually ranking him above Cousins:

Ranking the five best NBA sophomores - ESPN

hack · 11-06-2011, 08:10 PM

Cousins and Monroe actually shot a similar percentage at the rim, despite Cousins being burdened with creating his own shot much more often. Cousins also shot better than Monroe did at every other distance. The difference was Cousins took a higher percentage of his shots from those low-efficiency areas away from the rim.

One year doesn't settle these things, but THAT is the shocker to me. We expected Cousins to be the low-post beast and Monroe the softie looking to be Webberesque at the elbow.

Stefan S · 11-07-2011, 01:47 AM

I think that, in this case, we is best understood as the royal we, as in

We, the queen of England

or

We, the king of Statisticia

etc. Yes?

Big Jerm · 11-07-2011, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stefan S

Drag Race: Greg Monroe vs. DeMarcus Cousins PistonPowered

Surely it was an oversight on ESPN's part to not include Aldrich in this comparison?

King Mob · 11-07-2011, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B.I.G.

Can I edit this or someone change this to Monroe vs Aldrich? But I don't remember anyone here being so hot on Aldrich? But he is also better than Monroe. I just don't see this guy being no more than a poor man's Nazr Mohammad.

....smh

03-11-2011, 03:24 PM	#374
Jangul Bench Player Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Detroit, MI. Posts: 2,103 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Let me revise that last statement. I had the December redraft mixed up with the current redraft. And I question how they can justify Favors at 3 given his underwhelming performance so far, but so be it. 60 percent of the top 5 performers were in picks 1 thru 6 (Favors, Wall, and Cousins) and 40 percent in picks 7-12 (Patterson and Monroe). That's still a crapshoot. Last edited by Jangul; 03-11-2011 at 03:29 PM.

03-11-2011, 05:21 PM	#381
Kstat Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 8,150 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	It's also worth noting, that while none of the last 10 all-rookie first teams have featured all top-5 picks, two of them have featured 4 out of 5. If you're in the crapshoot frame of mind, the 7th pick has actually landed on the all-rookie 1st team more often than the 2nd pick (6 times vs. 4 times), a trend that will most likely continue this season. Going by the last decade, odds are roughly %40 that you'll land a top rookie at #2, and %60 that you'll land a top rookie at #7. Include Monroe and Turner in the mix, and that gap widens to %36 and %63. Last edited by Kstat; 03-11-2011 at 05:31 PM.

03-17-2011, 12:11 PM	#391
Mainevent Sixth Man Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,905 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Here you go. Didn't realize it was an "insider" column. Despite years of scouting players and hundreds of hours watching tape, projecting how a rookie will play is often more art than science. There are so many variables to consider -- personnel mixes, coaching styles, offensive and defensive systems, injuries; all work to cloud the vision of what's going to happen in Year 1. Still, we go into the season with an outlook that is well-defined, and these are 10 things that have us most surprised. Monroe1. Greg Monroe is killing it. I watched him jog a lot at Georgetown and many NBA scouts questioned his heart and motor because of his inconsistent efforts. Then when the season began, he could have earned the nickname "digital man" because he filled the stat sheets with zero's and one's. Twice in November he didn't score in 18 minutes of action (once against the defensively challenged Warriors). In fact, he didn't register his first double-figure scoring game until Dec. 1. Then the calendar flipped to 2011 -- he's averaged at least 10.9 points and 8.8 boards in each month this year. Plus, he's making almost 60 percent of his shots, thanks to good discipline which leads to excellent shot selection. The Pistons are a better offensive team now, and Monroe might be the most important cog in that wheel. Fields2. Landry Fields can shoot and rebound at this level. Sure, he played lots of power forward his last season in Stanford and averaged 8.8 boards per game. But in the NBA, the first guy to the ball normally wins and Fields would be stationed on the wing as a pro. The Knicks got Fields in the second round precisely because no one projected he would be able to rebound as a wing, and his shot was very suspect as well. We saw that he could play in summer league, but who would've guessed he'd be averaging 6.9 rebounds and shooting 40 percent from 3 as the Knicks' starting 2-guard? On top of that, he's had to make one one major adjustment: Going from primary option to role player, which is not easy. But we'd never know that based on what Fields has done this season. Patterson3. Patrick Patterson might be the best jump shooter in this class. In fact, he might be the best offensive rookie this season. Guys like John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin will likely end up being better offensive players, but Patterson has been terrific. He's made over 69 percent of his inside shots and over 55 percent from 16 to 23 feet. Nobody puts up numbers like those. Nobody. He's also shown the ability to score over people with athleticism, good hands and even the beginnings of some "Scolas" (scoops or half-hooks coming off fakes). Arriving to the NBA with the reputation of someone who knew how to play a role, he might end up being a top-three scorer for a good team early in his career. 4. Cleveland may have three building blocks (and used only one first-round pick). Cavs fans are hoping the team's draft picks this year will help turn around the franchise , but this year's rooks -- Christian Eyenga, Manny Harris and Samardo Samuels -- all look like guys that can play in this league, too. While it remains to be seen whether or not they can be NBA rotation players on a good team, these guys are exceeding expectations this season. Plus, each still has upside to explore, with the late-blooming Samuels only 22 years old and Eyenga and Harris not turning 22 until the summer. Assuming the Cavs add top-tier prospects this June with their own pick and the Clippers' unprotected pick, the Cavs could have five young players to jump-start their future (plus the 23-year-old J.J. Hickson). Neal5. Gary Neal is a big difference maker for the league's best team. Anyone who watched him in Europe knew he could play, but 29 franchises failed to see what kind of impact he could have on their team. He has made over 41 percent of his 3s this season and almost half of his 2-point shots, thanks to an excellent shooting stroke and even better shot selection. Neal should be the pioneer now for undrafted players who go overseas for a few years and continue to improve. And the Spurs have taught the league a valuable lesson: Don't keep recycling players who have been in the NBA but haven't accomplished anything when there are better players in Europe who haven't gotten a real chance to prove they belong in the NBA. 6. Gordon Hayward and Xavier Henry have been awful. It's difficult to put it any other way. Hayward seemed primed to step into a simple role in Utah, needing only to rebound and defend to earn quality minutes. And Henry, surrounded by talented veterans, just needed to get his silky smooth jumper flowing while contributing in the athletic areas of the game. Unfortunately, Hayward has proved to be one of the worst rebounding small forwards in the league and is likely the worst defender on the team. Meanwhile, Henry ranks as possibly the worst rebounder/shooter among all shooting guards in the NBA. Still, while both guys have underperformed dramatically, I would be more surprised if neither guy developed into at least a solid player in the NBA. Wall7. John Wall alone can't help the Wizards return to respectability. There is almost nothing Wall can't do well, from creating steals to getting guys easy shots or willing his team to fight because he's so competitive. He blew into the league after a storied high school career and a great freshman season at UK, and in November he looked like he alone would spark the Wiz to be a much-improved team. But his one major flaw is the big reason he alone can't carry his team: Wall simply can't shoot. He's making just 28 percent of his shots beyond 16 feet and inside the 3-point line, and 25 percent from 10-15 feet, the two combined ranges he takes most of his shots from. Those numbers are well below Derrick Rose's rookie numbers (he made 43 percent from 16-23 feet and 38 percent from 10-15 feet). Wall is already very good at finishing in the paint, better than Rose was as a rook, but to carry his team he has to be able to make a lot more shots. Last edited by Mainevent; 03-17-2011 at 12:14 PM.

03-17-2011, 12:12 PM	#392
Mainevent Sixth Man Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,905 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Turner8. Evan Turner struggled during the first few months. Maybe some people would rank this as a bigger surprise, considering how dominant he was in college. But beginning with summer league in July, we could see a number of factors were going to make Turner's transition from college superstar to NBA role player very difficult. Not having the ball in his hands a lot dramatically impacted his feel and confidence early in the season, and consequently, his overall effectiveness sank low. It's Turner's fault for not preparing as diligently as he should have this summer and fall, but he's also been the victim of being on a team that didn't need his unique set of talents as much as other teams did yet drafted him anyway. Fortunately for him and the Sixers, he has been getting back to being a solid player of late. 9. Al-Farouq Aminu couldn't miss from deep early, then his shot disappeared. It's difficult to figure out which numbers are more surprising, but they are stunning: Aminu made 32 of his first 69 3-pointers and ranked as one of the best deep shooters in the league. Then 2011 hit, and he's made 10 of his last 59. That's 10 made 3s in 2½ months, after making 10 in just two weeks in November. Back then we wrote that, for a player with his talent, he was relying too much on the deep shot. It's a big reason his overall productivity and efficiency are so low, ranking 24th among rookies in PER. Griffin *10. Blake Griffin is already* a superstar and could be MVP one day. Everyone knew he was going to be good when he went No. 1 overall in 2009 -- "starter good." But then he put up 20 and 14 in his opening game this season -- after sitting out all of 2009-10 with a knee injury -- and we saw he was going to be able to overpower players with his strength and size. Still, it was his 44-15-7 game in November that announced to the world he was already a star capable of lifting a bad franchise to higher levels. Dominant performances, highlight dunks and an All-Star berth followed. The rest is history. This week's rookie updates Larry Sanders, Bucks -- March 16: To stick in the NBA, oftentimes a player just needs to show one area where he can be a master. For Sanders, he's going to be here a long time thanks to his shot-blocking talent. The five blocks he had against Cleveland weren't a career high, but it was the third game in March he had more than two blocks. Jordan Crawford, Wizards -- March 16: Crawford poured in 21 first-half points in a fairly competitive game against the Bulls (who were without Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer). His staccato dribble attack was difficult for defenders to measure and he shot the ball well (and often). He tired in the second half but still showed some interesting signs and even played some backup point guard. He has a chance to be a player in this league, probably as a scoring guard off the bench. Landry Fields, Knicks -- March 16: The Knicks are struggling, but Fields is still steady and productive. On target from inside and outside, Fields has also gotten better with the ball, turning it over less than once per game in March. Avery Bradley, Celtics -- March 15: He's getting the occasional few minutes in games -- close ones and blowouts. But I don't expect he'll be active once the playoffs begin. John Wall, Wizards -- March 15: There is little doubt that Wall is now trying to do too much to help his struggling team -- slower to pass the ball to open teammates, looking to make special passes instead of easy ones. But it's nothing to be concerned about. Wall is still fighting for wins, which is the most important thing for him to do right now. Kevin Seraphin, Wizards -- March 15: Seraphin is starting to see things better on defense. Experience makes a difference and he's starting to anticipate a bit. I'm still not sure what he'll ultimately be, but I know he'll get chances this season and the next to prove he belongs. Eric Bledsoe, Clippers -- March 15: Bledsoe is working on his best month thus far, and he's doing it in about half the minutes he earned in November, his previous best month. Mo Williams is taking most of those minutes now, but that has not slowed Bledsoe, who is averaging 12 points, three rebounds and three assists while shooting 58 percent from the field. It looks like he's figured out that defenders cannot contain his drives without fouling often, as evidenced by his huge jump in free throws attempted. He's had seven and nine attempts in his past two games. His previous high was six. Cole Aldrich, Thunder -- March 14: Aldrich is making the occasional spot appearance and basically fouling more than anything else. Don't read too much into that, though -- we don't get a fair evaluation of players who play such limited minutes. Samardo Samuels, Cavaliers -- March 14: He recorded one double-double and flirted with two others over the past week, though it did not help the Cavs win any games. The jury is still out on him (though at least it is deliberating), and we won't know for sure what the Cavs have in him until next season. Still, there is room for optimism. Ed Davis, Raptors -- March 14:** March has been his best month, averaging 10 points and nine boards with more than two combined blocked shots and steals a game. He's had five games with 13 or more rebounds since Feb. 11, a huge indicator that he has a chance to be a prime rebounder. Couple that with his excellent scoring sense, and the Raptors appear to have found a long-term replacement for Chris Bosh. While he doesn't have Bosh's total talent, we know Toronto can look to draft or acquire help in the other positions -- the Raptors are set at PF. Last edited by Mainevent; 03-17-2011 at 12:15 PM.

11-07-2011, 01:47 AM	#398
Stefan S Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: South Texas Posts: 10,599 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I think that, in this case, we is best understood as the royal we, as in We, the queen of England or We, the king of Statisticia etc. Yes? Last edited by Stefan S; 11-07-2011 at 09:46 PM.

03-05-2011, 03:10 PM	#351
detroitsportsfan Bench Player Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,825 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Joe Dumars drafting has been a mixed bag: THE GOOD (Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Greg Monroe), THE DECENT (Carlos Delfino, Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, Brian Cardinal), & THE BAD (Darko Milicic, Mateen Cleaves, Deron Washington, Rodney White, DaJuan Summers). The draft is a bit of a crap shoot and no GM gets it right all the time. But even with Dumars bad picks, you can see his reasoning for drafting those picks and he usually fixed his mistakes in the end (which is one reason why new ownership should give him at least another year to turn things around).

03-05-2011, 06:35 PM	#352
fredsue Sixth Man Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 3,451 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I think Aaron Affalo has shown more than Daye has. He was a very good pick..but the trade including him was bad....of course we would then have like 300 SGs ...Okur was a good pick as well...Walter was a bad

03-05-2011, 07:29 PM	#353
Santos Water Boy Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 189 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I think it's fair to imagine Monroe breaking the 20 ppg, 12 rbd barrier if he had a true point guard playing for him, right? That's the job for Detroit in my opinion. Find a true point guard, clean the shooting guard logjam, hope JJ comes back in good shape, bet on Daye's and Monroe's improvement and play a steady rotation for one year, evaluate your players and then decide what else you'd need. If JJ comes back playing well and we put a good point guard to run the team, all of a sudden, the huge mess we had this year will seem long gone.

03-05-2011, 10:09 PM	#354
Stefan S Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: South Texas Posts: 10,599 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Good ideas, Santos. Also, fire the owner (at least, have one who gives a damn).

03-06-2011, 11:57 AM	#356
detroitsportsfan Bench Player Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,825 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I didn't try to include everyone of his draft picks; just 5 in each category.

03-09-2011, 05:34 PM	#357
Kstat Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 8,150 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	NBA Rookie Watch: Redraft Version 2.0 - ESPN Earlier this season, we did a redraft of the 2010 draft, and it looked a lot different than what really happened in June. Now let's do it again. You'll be surprised at how much has changed in just three months. Remember, it's too early to make final judgments or say that teams were wrong in the draft. Rather, this is just another snapshot of how the rookies look today and a way to see how they're evolving. On to the redraft ... Wall No. 1 pick: The Wizards select John Wall No. 1 pick in December's redraft: John Wall No. 1 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: John Wall The Wizards may be terrible, and Wall simply has to improve his shooting, but there is no question he is at the head of this draft class by a large margin. Despite playing on a bad team with some teammates who play like they don't care, or who struggle to be professionals off the court, Wall has maintained his competitive edge and is on the fast track to becoming an All-Star. He forces Wizards executives to ask, "How does he fit in with John?" every time they study a prospect or veteran. Monroe No. 2 pick: The 76ers select Greg Monroe No. 2 pick in December's redraft: Derrick Favors No. 2 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Evan Turner DeMarcus Cousins has more upside, but the Sixers are looking for guys who'd mesh with their group of veterans and help them get back into the playoffs. Monroe is starter material now and would be a great fit next to Elton Brand (high-low post action would be nice). He would also give the Sixers more of a defensive presence than Spencer Hawes does, and their style of defense would force Monroe to play harder and take more chances, which would help him play even better. Favors No. 3 pick: The Nets select Derrick Favors No. 3 pick in December's redraft: DeMarcus Cousins No. 3 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Derrick Favors Knowing how desperately the Nets were looking for a star to acquire, and that this pick was going to be sacrificed to do so, it makes more sense to take Favors than Cousins. Favors has more growing to do on the court, but few teams would be willing to trade their star for the current version of Cousins, as of now, anyway. Favors always projected to be a guaranteed starter with huge upside, and every GM valued him greatly. Cousins No. 4 pick: The Timberwolves select DeMarcus Cousins No. 4 pick in December's redraft: Al-Farouq Aminu No. 4 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Wesley Johnson I understand why the Wolves didn't draft him (see last week's Rookie Watch), but can't help but think, "What if they had?" The Wolves force the ball inside. They have a great shooting and passing power forward in Kevin Love. And their style of play and personnel is a perfect match for Cousins, who would pair with Love to form the best defensive-rebounding tandem in the NBA. Within three years they would likely have the best power forward/center combo in basketball. Yes, even better than the Lakers' front line of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Patterson No. 5 pick: The Kings select Patrick Patterson No. 5 pick in December's redraft: Eric Bledsoe No. 5 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: DeMarcus Cousins Don't let Patterson's pedestrian averages fool you. If he had been drafted by Sacramento, or any team not loaded with strong veterans inside, Patterson would likely be a 14 and 7 guy right away with relative ease. And he'd do that more efficiently than the guys in Sacramento. Patterson's shooting and defense would have earned him a starting spot quickly, too. When we revisit this draft in a few years, Patterson will be among the top performers. Davis No. 6 pick: The Warriors select Ed Davis No. 6 pick in December's redraft: Larry Sanders No. 6 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Ekpe Udoh Given the Warriors' need for defense, I understand why they looked Udoh's way in June -- he has a chance to be very good -- but thus far, Davis is a better rebounder, shooter, finisher and scorer than Udoh (and Sanders). He's also comparable as a shot-blocker. Davis looks like he's going to be a double-double guy in this league as a full-time starter, which could happen as early as next season. He is able to finish at a high rate inside and can also be utilized as a pick-and-pop guy -- that is a rare skill combination. George No. 7 pick: The Pistons select Paul George No. 7 pick in December's redraft: Ed Davis No. 7 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Greg Monroe Monroe is no longer available here, but George looks like a real player and could have worked his way into being Tayshaun Prince's replacement. Evan Turner is also a consideration here, but I think George's upside is the key factor.George should be a strong defensive presence in this league and also has the potential to be a top-two scorer on the team. He's a big upgrade in the "athlete" department as well, a sore point for the current Pistons roster. Fields No. 8 pick: The Clippers select Landry Fields No. 8 pick in December's redraft: Landry Fields No. 8 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Al-Farouq Aminu I had the Clips taking Fields back in December because Aminu was off the board then. This time I like Fields here because he's a great fit next to Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin. Aminu has more upside, but Fields would give the Clippers at least two perimeter threats on the court with Griffin and two guys who could feed him inside. I also like Fields' fit in the chemistry department; Aminu's cool and casual demeanor would take a backseat to the fire in Fields. Turner No. 9 pick: The Jazz select Evan Turner No. 9 pick in December's redraft: Wes Johnson No. 9 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Gordon Hayward Going into the season, Turner could have been penciled in as the starting 2 in Utah, where Deron Williams' presence alone would have enabled Turner to have some seams to attack after ball reversal. The Jazz's offense would allow him to make plays inside within its flow, and his rebounding talent would be an immediate help. He represents strong value at this spot in the draft. Johnson No. 10 pick: The Pacers select Wesley Johnson No. 10 pick in December's redraft: Xavier Henry No. 10 pick in actual 2010 NBA draft: Paul George With George off the board, Johnson would be the choice here. He's starting to figure out how to use his athleticism to make defensive plays, and has become a very reliable shooter from a few spots on the floor. For me, the question for Johnson has always been his willingness and ability to attack the rim. It looks as if he's making progress there, too. If that continues, he has a chance to be a top-5 player in this class within a few years, if not sooner.

03-09-2011, 05:44 PM	#358
Dave Bing Sixth Man Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 6,298 : 0 For This Post 1 Total	Good job Joe! And good work G-Moe.

03-09-2011, 06:06 PM	#359
GC_STONES Sixth Man Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,863 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	still can't believe the Warriors took Epic 'bobble head' Udoh over Slow Moe.

03-10-2011, 02:44 AM	#360
diecast75 Water Boy Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 559 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I was beside myself....new we had lucked out big time!

03-10-2011, 03:48 PM	#361
Jangul Bench Player Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Detroit, MI. Posts: 2,103 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Note that 5 of the top 7 picks were available at pick 7 or below. No chance we'll remember that when we're wringing our hands about games we should have thrown so we didn't end up with the 9th pick in and "8 man draft" or whatever this summer. Good players are there to be had in the middle of the draft and there are plenty of bad ones to be had at the top of the draft. It's a crapshoot.

03-10-2011, 03:56 PM	#362
El Axe Bench Player Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,107 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I'm not sure I'd take Monroe over Favors looking long-term, but there's no doubt that Joe played this right in any case.

03-10-2011, 04:29 PM	#366
hack Hall of Fame Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 15,271 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	LOL, well put.

03-10-2011, 05:15 PM	#368
Dave Bing Sixth Man Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 6,298 : 0 For This Post 1 Total	I'm starting to warm to Kemba. In the NBA, you need to do at least one thing really well to survive. Kemba can handle the pumpkin. He's so freaking fast with the ball. And hey... pretty clutch too. He's kind of an under-control Brandon Jennings with a decent jumper.

03-10-2011, 06:30 PM	#369
Mainevent Sixth Man Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,905 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I can't buy into him being a PG yet. But dude can get into the lane anytime he wants.

03-10-2011, 07:03 PM	#370
GC_STONES Sixth Man Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,863 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I've had my eye on Kemba since he was a frosh --- loved him more and more each year.... yet I see him, and how much better is he than Will Bynum?

03-10-2011, 07:29 PM	#372
Kstat Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 8,150 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	He has no guys to involve.

03-11-2011, 04:02 PM	#375
Mainevent Sixth Man Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,905 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	It's still in the lottery. And how many of those guys are game changers from a franchise perspective? Yes, you can get quality players outside of the top 5 in the lottery. But most of the true elite talent, the type of players that can help turn a franchise around on their own, most are found in the top 5-10 picks every year. Now, you don't have to necessrily draft those guys yourself to acquire them (look at NY with Melo and Amare, Miami with Lebron, Gasol etc.). But when it comes to the draft, most of those guys come in the lottery, and often quite high in the lottery. Just look at the "stars" around the league - Wade, Bosh, LeBron, Melo, Rose, Paul, Williams, Wall, Griffin, Durant, KG, Pierce, Allen, Dirk, Westbrook, Duncan, on and on). What you also don't consider is that while the guy picked at 12 may turn out real well, the guys 13-18 may not, the odds of landing a quality player get less and less as the draft goes on. If the top 10 is a 1 in 3 crapshoot for an impact player, well outside the top 10 might be more like 1 in 6 or worse (all ratios are purely examples, not grounded in fact).

03-11-2011, 04:39 PM	#376
Dave Bing Sixth Man Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 6,298 : 0 For This Post 1 Total	Very small sample size. It would be interesting to go back ten years on this. Anyone game?

03-11-2011, 04:43 PM	#377
hack Hall of Fame Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 15,271 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Would love to know. My bet is that there are 1, maybe 2 players a year worth trading up for and that's it and you know in advance who they are. I think ME's right, but in the case of Cousins/Monroe, Jangul's point was too. Wall was worth paying for. Not cousins.

03-11-2011, 05:07 PM	#378
Kstat Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 8,150 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Let's go by the all-rookie first teams as the top-5 standard. 2010 Tyreke Evans (4th) Brandon Jennings (10th) Stephen Curry (7th) Darren Collison (21st) Taj Gibson (26th) 2009 Derrick Rose (1st) OJ Mayo (3rd) Russell Westbrook (4th) Brook Lopez (10th) Michael Beasley (2nd) 2008 Al Horford (3rd) Kevin Durant (2nd) Luis Scola (55th) Al Thornton (14th) Jeff Green (5th) 2007 Brandon Roy (6th) Andrea Bargnani (1st) LaMarcus Aldridge (2nd) Randy Foye (7th) Rudy Gay (8th) Jorge Garbajosa (undrafted) 2006 Charis Paul (4th) Charlie Villanueva (7th) Andrew Bogut (1st) Deron Williams (3rd) Channing Frye (8th) 2005 Emeka Okafor (2nd) Dwight Howard (1st) Ben Gordon (3rd) Luol Deng (7th) Andre Igoudala (9th) 2004 Carmelo Anthony (3rd) LeBron James (1st) Dwayne Wade (5th) Chris Bosh (4th) Kirk Hinrich (7th) 2003 Yao Ming (1st) Amare Stoudemire (9th) Caron Butler (10th) Drew Gooden (4th) Nene (7th) 2002 Pau Gasol (3rd) Shane Battier (6th) Jason Richardson (5th) Tony Parker (28th) Andrei Kirilinko (24th) 2001 Mike Miller (5th) Kenyon Martin (1st) Marc Jackson (37th) Morris Peterson (21st) Darius Miles (3rd)

03-11-2011, 05:08 PM	#379
Dwight Schrute Water Boy Join Date: May 2009 Location: Milwaukee, Wiscompton Posts: 654 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	I agree with ME. Also, I just found out today that we passed on Wilt Chamberlain to draft Bailey Howell. At the #2 spot. That is not a good spot for us.

03-11-2011, 05:15 PM	#380
Kstat Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 8,150 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	so out of 51 all-1st team rookies: 28 (%55) were drafted in the top five 15 (%29) were taken during picks 6-10 5 (%10) were taken during the1st round outside of the top-10 2 (%4) were drafted in the 2nd round 1(%2) was undrafted.

03-11-2011, 06:33 PM	#383
Statman Crothers Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 97 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Great stats!

03-11-2011, 09:38 PM	#384
Mainevent Sixth Man Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,905 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Nice legwork Kstat. BTW, Kemba Walker with another ridiculous game tonight. I might not care if he's a real PG or not. That guy will add some excitement to whatever team he goes to.

03-12-2011, 12:14 AM	#385
El Axe Bench Player Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,107 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Franchise-type players from Kstat's list: 2008 Kevin Durant (2nd) 2007 Brandon Roy (6th); LaMarcus Aldridge (2nd) 2006 Chris Paul (4th); Deron Williams (3rd) 2005 Dwight Howard (1st) 2004 Carmelo Anthony (3rd); LeBron James (1st); Dwayne Wade (5th); Chris Bosh (4th) 2003 Yao Ming (1st); Amare Stoudemire (9th) 2002 Pau Gasol (3rd); Tony Parker (28th) 2001 none 15 players: 12 in the top-5, one at #6, one at #9 and one at #28.

03-12-2011, 02:02 PM	#386
hack Hall of Fame Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 15,271 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Kemba Walker is Bynumite out there on the court!!! (just looking to use the pun, not make a totally accurate comparison. He may not suffer the problems of Bynum, but I bet he'll never be a Piston. You can be an undersized SG for Joe, but not an undersized PG. And the risk if he can't run a team to a basic degree of competency is massive. We'd have an undersized SG that would make Ben Gordon look like a giant.)

03-16-2011, 03:19 PM	#387
Mainevent Sixth Man Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,905 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	NBA Rookie Watch: Biggest surprises - ESPN Despite years of scouting players and hundreds of hours watching tape, projecting how a rookie will play is often more art than science. There are so many variables to consider -- personnel mixes, coaching styles, offensive and defensive systems, injuries; all work to cloud the vision of what's going to happen in Year 1. Still, we go into the season with an outlook that is well-defined, and these are 10 things that have us most surprised. Monroe 1. Greg Monroe is killing it. I watched him jog a lot at Georgetown and many NBA scouts questioned his heart and motor because of his inconsistent efforts. Then when the season began, he could have earned the nickname "digital man" because he filled the stat sheets with zero's and one's. Twice in November he didn't score in 18 minutes of action (once against the defensively challenged Warriors). In fact, he didn't register his first double-figure scoring game until Dec. 1. Then the calendar flipped to 2011 -- he's averaged at least 10.9 points and 8.8 boards in each month this year. Plus, he's making almost 60 percent of his shots, thanks to good discipline which leads to excellent shot selection. The Pistons are a better offensive team now, and Monroe might be the most important cog in that wheel. And in the notes section: Ed Davis, Raptors -- March 14: March has been his best month, averaging 10 points and nine boards with more than two combined blocked shots and steals a game. He's had five games with 13 or more rebounds since Feb. 11, a huge indicator that he has a chance to be a prime rebounder. Couple that with his excellent scoring sense, and the Raptors appear to have found a long-term replacement for Chris Bosh. While he doesn't have Bosh's total talent, we know Toronto can look to draft or acquire help in the other positions -- the Raptors are set at PF.

03-16-2011, 11:44 PM	#388
B.I.G. Bench Player Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,081 : 0 For This Post 3 Total	Greg Monroe's DeMarcus Cousins or Aldrich for that matter...LOL!!! Where is Aldrich BTW?

03-16-2011, 11:59 PM	#389
King Mob Bench Player Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,976 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	Monroe is making you look bad...smh

03-17-2011, 02:32 AM	#390
Kstat Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 8,150 : 0 For This Post 0 Total	care to post the whole article, Mainevent?