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Old 05-02-2009, 09:40 AM   #1
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Question Is it time to try a Magic (circa 2000) or Celtics (circa 2007) strategy?

There's a lot of talk about Dumars going after Boozer, West, etc. this summer, but it seems to me that strong consideration should be given to waiting it out.

In 2000, the Magic had just completed a scrappy season, but they had enough cap space in the summer to offer two MAX contracts. They targeted Grant Hill and Tim Duncan, and walked away with Hill and Tracey McGrady. Sure, the eventual outcome wasn't the greatest, but the strategy was solid.

In 2007, the Celtics had an abyssmal season and landed a top draft pick. They managed to turn the one good young player on their roster and that pick into KG and Ray Allen. The eventual outcome was pretty damned good for them.

It seems to me that we're poised to be in the same situation, or maybe a hybrid of those situations. We'd probably have to move out a player for next year -- probably Tay -- but we'd certainly have enough cap space in 2010 to sign two MAX players. You could provide the Orlando situation to LeBron and Bosh or Amare and Dirk, or whatever other combination.

Everybody knows the list of free agents is deep:
  • Joe Johnson
  • LeBron
  • Dirk
  • Josh Howard
  • Yao Ming
  • TJ Ford
  • Wade
  • Richard Jefferson
  • Michael Redd
  • Steve Nash
  • Amare Stoudamire
  • Manu Ginobili
  • Chris Bosh

We'd also likely end up with a high draft pick in a much deeper draft. That would allow us to get somebody like John Wall or Greg Monroe, who could either be used as a cornerstone here for the next decade or as very large trade bait for a disgruntled non-FA star.

It seems that all of the pieces are in place for this plan, but there's only talk about making the splash this summer. Joe is pretty famous for saying one thing to the media and doing another, and I can respect that, so maybe this is his true plan of action.

Last edited by Lou Stefanic; 05-02-2009 at 11:06 AM.
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Old 05-02-2009, 10:07 AM   #2
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It's not the worst idea ever. And with Iverson and Rasheed gone, the team wouldn't be so hard to watch, even though they likely wouldn't be very good.
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Old 05-02-2009, 10:10 AM   #3
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Well, they would be awful next year. Close to being the worst team in the league. But the idea is that's part of the plan. If somebody like Danny Ainge or John Gabriel can sell it, I would think Dumars could perfect it.
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Old 05-02-2009, 10:11 AM   #4
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I would be beyond shocked if Dumars rolled the cap space into another season and tried the Orlando Magic method. I just do not see him giving up entirely on a season before it even starts.

Maybe he tries the Boston thing, but we don't have an Al Jefferson to toss around, a lottery pick (in a good draft as well) to chuck out there, and we don't have someone like Pierce who has never been to the mountain top and is desperate.

I think Dumars will choose his own path. Some undervalued free agents here, a couple trades there, and so on.
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Old 05-02-2009, 10:11 AM   #5
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Interesting analogies. For all our "Felton, Bogut, and Millsap" talk, I think that Joe realizes that we kind of caught lightning in a bottle with our "five number two" players dynamic. Joe wants a real star. If he can't land a premier player via trade (I do not consider Boozer premier), I bet that he conserves the space for 2010.

We really need a shooter/scorer as well as a post player. This team is not that close and none of Felton, Bogut, Millsap or Boozer gets us that much closer. I'm still mad for Amare. I think that he's a great talent with a legit body selling at a major discount. David West more than Boozer, Millsap or Bogut as well.
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Old 05-02-2009, 10:25 AM   #6
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West sort of fell off some with the way he played against the Nuggets, for me. I still like him, but I'm wondering how much of an impact player he really is. His playoff numbers dropped so far from the regular season, points, FG% and rebounds. He could have been anyone out there during a couple of those games. And 4 of 16 in a closeout game.

I think Millsap has the most upside of the players you mentioned. Even when he's having an off game, he's one of those guys that can still pile up the boards. And he seems fearless.

I don't know what to think about Amare anymore.

I agree with Hobbs, I don't think Joe will wait. Not that I don't wish he would. I'd rather he didn't do anything huge until 2010, unless there's some kind of no-brainer trade on the table.

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Old 05-02-2009, 10:29 AM   #7
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Quote:
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Well, they would be awful next year. Close to being the worst team in the league.
Honestly, that wouldn't be so bad, as long as it didn't seem like some of the players weren't trying...which is what it looked like this season. I mean, can a great player actually be more disinterested in a series than Rasheed was in the first round? Kwame outplayed him a couple of times in like 15 minutes off the bench, for pete's sake.
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Old 05-02-2009, 10:33 AM   #8
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Grant Hill had already been on the Magic for 2 years in 2002....and had even played 18 games!
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Old 05-02-2009, 11:03 AM   #9
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As Joe said in his presser - of course he wants a superstar. But he also said it's just almost impossible to obtain one because there are only a few of them in the league at any one time.
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Old 05-02-2009, 11:05 AM   #10
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Yikes. It was summer 2000, not 2002. My memory's not so good anymore!
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Old 05-02-2009, 11:14 AM   #11
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It's not a terrible idea, but there's a couple problems. First, Detroit isn't considered as desirable of a place to live as Orlando. Now in reality, Auburn Hills is very nice and Detroit isn't as bad as its rep, and Orlando is a crappy place to live, but that doesn't change the perception which is all that really matters for free agents. Second, Florida doesn't have state income tax so that is a big-time selling point for the Magic or the Heat.

I agree that we would be one of the worst teams in the league. We'd lose Sheed and McDyess and replace them with the #15 pick and Amir, Max, Kwame. This does not bode well. On the other hand, we would not only have enough cap space to sign some big-time free agents in 2010, we would also have a top 5 draft pick. As we know, great players like to travel in packs, so the addition of a top 5 pick would definitely help in the acquisition of top notch free agents.

Personally, I want to sell the farm for Chris Paul and build around him.
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Old 05-02-2009, 11:21 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Bing View Post
Interesting analogies. For all our "Felton, Bogut, and Millsap" talk, I think that Joe realizes that we kind of caught lightning in a bottle with our "five number two" players dynamic.
Indeed. Joe's never said he prefers the five-numbers-twos strategy to the tried and true one. He tried to get a superstar, that didn't work, so he moved on to plan B, and we caught lightning in a bottle. Joe needs to get impact players now, no doubt.

If he can't get a real franchise player, than Ben Gordon needs a long look. If there's such a thing as a player whose only skill is getting the franchise-making buckets, he's it. He's an ideal player to pair with Bosh, who is a franchise player but not a franchise scorer. It all comes down to price though. Something slightly above MLE and he's a deal. More becomes iffy.
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Old 05-02-2009, 11:41 AM   #13
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Ben Gordon has giant onions, yes, but on his best days, he's an apathetic defender. That's not Piston-style. That's the only issue there. Gordon with a shot blocker who can hit the glass, I can see.
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Old 05-02-2009, 11:46 AM   #14
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Well, we'll need that either way. The Bulls play pretty good defense now, and they did a few years ago when they made their playoff run. Gordon was on both teams. I agree he's a flawed player, but if you need playoff scoring and you can't get a frnachise scorer, you need to look at the guy...
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:30 PM   #15
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I think we should go balls to the wall for Amare.... he's the best guy on that list that we actually have a shot at and he WANTS to be the man on whatever team he's on.
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Old 05-02-2009, 04:21 PM   #16
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Hold the cap space and play chicken with the league's cash-strapped owners. Most guys who got rich in the Gold Rush were selling picks and shovels to get-rich quick types; similarly, I could see us cleaning up on teams trying to clear cap room as 2010 draws closer.
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Old 05-02-2009, 05:29 PM   #17
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Quote:
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I think we should go balls to the wall for Amare.... he's the best guy on that list that we actually have a shot at and he WANTS to be the man on whatever team he's on.
I'm of the same opinion. There isn't another player that will available that is a better fit than Amar'e. He is a perfect player to target, more so than Bosh. His game is a lot more suited to be a primary post player that does most of his damage in the post. Get him here, and every other option will become easier.
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Old 05-02-2009, 05:43 PM   #18
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Do you ignore the chance that he'll never be any good again because of his eyes or his history of knee/acl injuries? He has large risk factors outside of the player he is (was?).
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Old 05-02-2009, 05:53 PM   #19
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No you're right Hobbs, but he did come back from his injuries before and was a better player than he was before.

I'm just not that excited about Bosh. He doesn't have that "the man" attitude that Amare does. I don't want to pay anybody ridiculous money if they aren't willing to be that guy.
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Old 05-02-2009, 06:01 PM   #20
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He hasn't come back from the eye thing yet and the last piece I read on it said it was a serious injury with potential to end his career. The knee/acl things also have a tendancy to recur.

It's just something to put into the mix before making any moves.

He is the single best option in my eyes if the injuries are dropped from the equation though, on that I agree. He has flaws in his game, but the strengths are just overwhelming.
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Old 05-02-2009, 07:32 PM   #21
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I don't think JoeD is going to get rid of M. Curry for 2010. .. he'll be given a whole season w/o any trade controversies (3 games into the season) to gauge him as a coach ( I know what I already think...)

with that in mind, no matter how reasonable a roster we put out there, his poor coaching will probably not get us very far into the playoffs (if at all).

so.... with that in mind, I have no problems saving some cash for the 2010 FA market. Amare (if the retina is not a problem) and maybe picking up Milsap (this yr) along with our '09 #15 and a lotto '10 pick could really rejuvenate this team - especially if stuckey, afflalo and some of the younger guys step it up. yeah it won't be a 60 game winner, but I can almost guarantee they'll play with some heart.

this all assumes '10 lotto has some ballers in it - that I don't have too much knowledge of apart from J. Wall and a few guys who backed out of this yrs draft.
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Old 05-03-2009, 12:35 AM   #22
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I've been thinking the same thing as Lou has which is that I'm not all that excited about spending a ton of money this year on guys who're either not that good, questionable health wise (Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer) or fatally flawed (Josh Smith, Ben Gordon).

If we can't retain Antonio McDyess this is the first indicator to me that we shouldn't spend a lot now. I don't know which way McDyess' heart will tell him to go but if we can retain him then we're much better off to start.

I'd then trade Tayshaun Prince for Chris Kaman and go after one or two of the following free agents Trevor Ariza, Marvin Williams, Charlie Villanueva and Paul Millsap.

Get a couple of those guys plus Ty Lawson and Danny Green and we're a pretty well stocked young team.

If McDyess isn't coming then we could just draft those two guys plus whatever other projects and ride it out. Play the young guys a lot keep Richard Hamilton and Tayshuan Prince on the market and see what develops.

Edit: Instead of Lawson and Green I'd prefer Terrence Williams and Darren Collison. All are solid and Williams has a chance to be a real star.

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Old 05-04-2009, 02:08 PM   #23
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Amare's uncertain health is a risk...but doesn't his contract expire next year? It is a risk that would allow for us to regain his salary next year if it does not work out well...there is risk in that as well but might be less risk than signing another guy to a longer contract and finding out he does not work well...
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:39 PM   #24
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Any status report on his eye?
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:50 PM   #25
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Quote:
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I don't think JoeD is going to get rid of M. Curry for 2010. .. he'll be given a whole season w/o any trade controversies (3 games into the season) to gauge him as a coach ( I know what I already think...)

with that in mind, no matter how reasonable a roster we put out there, his poor coaching will probably not get us very far into the playoffs (if at all).

so.... with that in mind, I have no problems saving some cash for the 2010 FA market. Amare (if the retina is not a problem) and maybe picking up Milsap (this yr) along with our '09 #15 and a lotto '10 pick could really rejuvenate this team - especially if stuckey, afflalo and some of the younger guys step it up. yeah it won't be a 60 game winner, but I can almost guarantee they'll play with some heart.

this all assumes '10 lotto has some ballers in it - that I don't have too much knowledge of apart from J. Wall and a few guys who backed out of this yrs draft.
Yeah...the excuse for Curry this season was the turmoil and injuries. Next season it will be "its a transition year with practically a whole new team, he was bound to struggle". I'll always be a Piston fan, but I just do not like MC as coach (nice guy, hard worker, but just doesn't seem all that bright).
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Old 05-04-2009, 05:36 PM   #26
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Doc Rivers was thought of as one of the worst coaches in the league his first few seasons as the Celtics coach... then they made the big moves and he is a championship coach.

The sad thing is that Curry doesn't have nearly the media darling personality that Doc has and comes off as a mildly retarded hampster during interviews.
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Old 05-04-2009, 09:35 PM   #27
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We could always re-sign Rasheed for another season and work on developing the young players.

Waiting has some merits. Boozer isn't going to make us a championship caliber team. So why spend all the cap space then?

The wildcard are trades. By having cap space, a team might be willing to dump a superstar to us. Michael Redd?
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Old 05-04-2009, 10:11 PM   #28
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Sheed shouldn't be withing 200 miles of this club next season. The guy is a quitter - and even if he gets his legs back next season, he's 35+ years old and is losing it quickly.
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Old 05-04-2009, 10:47 PM   #29
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Eh...we need some bodies on 1 year contracts if we are going to wait and make a run at Bosh or Wade or someone.
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Old 05-05-2009, 11:33 PM   #30
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Front load contracts with young guys or don't spend all the cap. That cap space will be just as valuable later in the year too if you help a trade work by taking an expiring contract and a 1st round pick.
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Old 05-07-2009, 10:35 PM   #31
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Doc Rivers was thought of as one of the worst coaches in the league his first few seasons as the Celtics coach... then they made the big moves and he is a championship coach.

The sad thing is that Curry doesn't have nearly the media darling personality that Doc has and comes off as a mildly retarded hampster during interviews.
Doc was also a COY candidate with the Magic. Curry will NEVER get close to COY.
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Old 05-08-2009, 12:51 PM   #32
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If he's still the coach when the Pistons climb back into contention - which likely won't be for a few years at least - then he will obviously be a COY candidate.
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Old 05-08-2009, 01:57 PM   #33
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This thing may hit rock bottom before we get contender level again.
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Old 05-08-2009, 02:14 PM   #34
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I dunno... I played the Lakers with my son on PS3 today and the Pistons looked great. Won by 12. I still have hope.
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Old 05-08-2009, 02:23 PM   #35
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yeah but I had the lions for madden 09 and they killed packers in laimblow but not holding my breathe....
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Old 05-12-2009, 09:06 PM   #36
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Joe isnt going to bag 2009 for a chance at landing a star in 2010....he is going ot try and make the team as competitive as he can for 2009/2010 season.......He needs to find lightning in a bottle with his next Ben Wallace or find that vet like he did with Rasheed.......
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Old 05-12-2009, 09:20 PM   #37
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I don't want to spend more than 9m on any free agent out there.

I'd much rather sign some guys to big one year deals maybe or just bring in some cheap hungry players... wait till the trade deadline and see if some other players can be had

if not, who cares if we're a lottery team - then we have a chance to make some big moves 2010 offseason along with having a possible top 5 pick. I'm willing to take a year (one step back) to reload and then inject some top talent in 12 months (two steps forward)
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Old 05-12-2009, 09:46 PM   #38
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Yep. We definately don't need any bad contracts. They will be almost impossible to get rid of.

Knowing the result of the season, I'm hoping Kwame opts out.
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Old 05-21-2009, 12:18 PM   #39
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I agree why commit a lot of money to players who aren't going to put us over the top. Bringing in Paul Millsap and retaining Antonio McDyess would make me happy if the money's right. Also Gortat if Joe Dumars thinks he's good enough. That should be cheap enough.
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Old 05-22-2009, 01:27 AM   #40
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I actually love those ideas. I think Millsap has a nice ceiling, and Gortat could be one of those guys that surprises with more minutes. Then, you can still go after a nice player in '10.
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